James Montgomery - Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
An Age-Structured Two-Sex Population Model with Endogenous Forces of Attraction
Date: 09/26/2013 (Thu)
Time: 3:30pm- 5:00pm
Location: Seminar will be held on-site: Gross Hall - 270
Organizer: Giovanna Merli and Jim Moody
Meeting Schedule: Login or email the organizer to schedule a meeting.
All meetings will be held in the same location as the seminar unless otherwise noted.
8:30am - breakfast Giovanna Merli (meet in hotel lobby)
10:00am - open
10:30am - Seth Sanders
11:00am - OPEN
11:30am - Angie O'Rand (102 Allen)
12:00pm - Lunch with Rachel Kranton
1:00pm - meeting with DuPRI students (Xiaomin Fu)
1:45pm - Amar Hamoudi
2:15pm - Ashton Verdery
2:45pm - Elizabeth Frankenberg
3:15pm - Prepare for seminar
3:30pm - Seminar Presentation (3:30pm to 5:00pm)
6:15pm - dinner with Jim Moody, Lynn Smith-Lovin, Giovanna Merli (Watts Grocery)
9:00am - Friday Sept 27: Breakfast with Lynn Smith-Lovin
10:30am - OPEN
11:00am - OPEN
11:30am - OPEN
12:00pm - Friday Sept 27 - Lunch with Mark Chaves
Additional Comments: Abstract: In age-structured two-sex population models, couple formation is modeled as a two-step process in which pairs first meet and then determine whether to match. The probability that a female of age i meets a male of age j depends on the relative numbers of such individuals, while the probability that this pair matches conditional on meeting -- the "force of attraction" for an ij pair -- is exogenously given and time independent. However, adopting a search-theoretic perspective, matching probabilities should also vary with marriage-market conditions. Intuitively, singles facing better marriage prospects should become more selective, setting a higher reservation match quality, and hence have a lower force of attraction. To address these search-theoretic considerations, we incorporate value functions into a conventional age-structured two-sex model, allowing endogenous determination of the forces of attraction. These value functions, which characterize the expected value of continued search by singles at each age, are determined through a process of adaptive expectations, with current marriage-market conditions used as a proxy for future conditions. The model is illustrated with a series of hypothetical examples involving change in the sex ratio at birth (which eventually creates a "marriage squeeze"), an important context in which endogenous attraction may be consequential for population projections.