Andrew Noymer - University of California, Irvine
What's flu got to do with it? Changes in the age-structure of influenza mortality during pandemics.
Date: 09/19/2013 (Thu)
Time: 3:30pm- 5:00pm
Location: Seminar will be held on-site: Gross Hall - 270
Organizer: Ken Land/Vickie Bowes
Meeting Schedule: Login or email the organizer to schedule a meeting.
All meetings will be held in the same location as the seminar unless otherwise noted.
8:30am - Breakfast: Giovanna Merli (will meet in hotel lobby)
9:30am - Seth Sanders
10:00am - Jake Fisher
10:30am - Ryan Brown
11:00am - OPEN
11:30am - Angie O'Rand (Allen 102)
12:15pm - Amar Hamoudi
12:45pm - DuPRI students: Bryce Bartlett
1:15pm - Join postdoc lunch
2:15pm - Jessica Ho
2:45pm - Duncan Thomas
3:15pm - Seminar preparation
3:30pm - Seminar Presentation (3:30pm to 5:00pm)
6:00pm - dinner with Ken Land
Additional Comments: Abstract: Influenza is a disease that is associated with both old-age mortality and with occasional severe episodes known as pandemics. Interestingly, however, during pandemics, although mortality increases, the age-mortality pattern becomes less flu-like, shifting younger. This talk will outline the virological and demographic reasons for these mortality age shifts during influenza pandemics. I introduce the use of a cause-specific Gompertz paramerization to quantify the age shifts in mortality, using data from the two most recent pandemics (2009, H1N1 and 1968-69, H3N2) as well as the interpandemic periods (pre-1968, H2N2, and 1969-2009, H3N2, H3N2/H1N1). In short, influenza mortality affects the elderly, but the main policy concern about influenza is pandemic preparedness, when mortality skews younger; this talk will outline how and why.