Leah Vanwey - Brown University
Climate variability and migration in Mexico
Date: 02/19/2015 (Thu)
Time: 3:30pm- 5:00pm
Location: Seminar will be held on-site: Gross Hall - 230E
Organizer: Elizabeth Frankenberg, Ph.D.
Meeting Schedule: Login or email the organizer to schedule a meeting.
All meetings will be held in the same location as the seminar unless otherwise noted.
9:30am - Maria M. Laurito and Elisa Maffioli
10:00am - Elizabeth Frankenberg
10:30am - Veronica Montalva and Nick Ingwersen
11:00am - Jessica Ho
11:30am - Joseph Lariscy
12:00pm - Lunch: Gina Turrini and Jose Martinez
1:15pm - Duncan Thomas
2:15pm - Jimena Rico, Sara Zetune, Maria Luisa Vasquez, Ariadne Rivera, Daniela Tort
3:15pm - Prepare for seminar
3:30pm - Seminar Presentation (3:30pm to 5:00pm)
5:00pm - dinner after the talk...
Additional Comments: ABSTRACT: Recent years have seen dramatic changes in the debate about the impacts of weather and weather shocks on human migration. Earlier demographic work and research focusing on likely impacts of climate change suggested that climate shocks prompted out-migration as individuals faced income loss from failed crops or crop-related employment. More recently, work in a variety of settings has shown mixed impacts of weather shocks on migration, including adverse weather sometimes decreasing and sometimes increasing migration, and adverse weather having varying impacts on short- or long-distance and short- or long-term migration. This paper builds on this existing work by examining impacts of climate variability and shocks on both short-term and long-term migration, and on the theoretically linked interhousehold transfers. We merge two waves of MxFLS data with gridded weather data covering the last 65 years, allowing us to test the impacts of long-term average climate and short-term deviations from long-term averages. Results show that both migration and transfers vary across regions with different long-term climates, and across years with different rainfall shocks. Migration and interhousehold transfer rates are higher in regions with higher long-term average rainfall and similarly higher in years when rainfall is above average; contrary to the traditional argument that rainfall deficit is associated with migration. These results contribute to a growing consensus that climate change is more likely to strand rural residents of developing countries in place rather than creating a wave of climate refugees.