Adrian Raftery - University of Washington
Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries
Date: 12/04/2014 (Thu)
Time: 3:30pm- 5:00pm
Location: Seminar will be held on-site: Gross Hall - 103
Organizer: Giovanna Merli
Meeting Schedule: Login or email the organizer to schedule a meeting.
All meetings will be held in the same location as the seminar unless otherwise noted.
8:30am - Breakfast -- Giovanna Merli
9:30am - Maria M. Laurito
10:00am - Jessica Ho
10:30am - Igor Akushevich
11:00am - Jake Fisher
11:30am - Amar Hamoudi
12:00pm - Lunch (Angie O'Rand)
1:15pm - Emma Zang
1:45pm - Ashton Verdery
2:15pm - Lynn Smith-Lovin
2:45pm - Joseph Lariscy
3:15pm - Prepare for seminar
3:30pm - Seminar Presentation (3:30pm to 5:00pm)
6:00pm - Dinner with Giovanna Merli, Jim Moody, Scott Lynch at Parizade
Additional Comments: ABSTRACT: Projections of countries’ future populations, broken down by age and sex, are widely used for planning and research. They are mostly done deterministically, but there is a widespread need for probabilistic projections. I will describe a Bayesian statistical method for probabilistic population projections for all countries. These new methods have been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent population projections for all countries. The results suggest that world population will increase more than had recently been believed likely, reaching between 9 and 13 billion by the end of the century, with no end to population growth this century. The population of Africa, in particular, is likely to grow, from about 1 billion now to between 3 and 5 billion. The number of working age people per retired person will probably decline dramatically in most countries over the coming decades. The results also suggest that the current UN high and low variants underestimate uncertainty for high fertility countries, and overstate uncertainty for low fertility countries, mostly in Europe.