Sara Curran - University of Washington
Demographic Dynamics and Population Responses to Varying Natural Hazard Exposure Across the U.S., 1970-2014
Date: 04/06/2017 (Thu)
Time: 3:30pm- 5:00pm
Location: Seminar will be held on-site: Gross Hall 230E
Organizer: William Pan
Meeting Schedule: Login or email the organizer to schedule a meeting.
All meetings will be held in the same location as the seminar unless otherwise noted.
9:30am - Marcos Rangel
10:00am - Duncan Thomas
10:30am - Jennan Read
11:00am - Patricia Homan
11:30am - Elizabeth Frankenberg
12:00pm - Lunch: Bill Pan
12:30pm - Lunch: Bill Pan
1:00pm - Lunch: Bill Pan
1:30pm - Arun Hendi
2:00pm - Jessica Ho
2:30pm - Angie O'Rand
3:00pm - Seminar Prep
3:30pm - Seminar Presentation (3:30pm to 5:00pm)
6:30pm - dinner O'Rand, Moody, Pan, Merli + CPC colleagues
Additional Comments: Understanding demographic responses to climate-related natural disasters has garnered sustained attention ever since the 2007 IPCC report. The challenge with calibrating policy plans and responses is two-fold. First, there are challenges with linking social data to environmental data at proper temporal and social scales, accounting for heterogeneity in exposures and responses and avoiding retrospective, event-centric sample bias. Second, there is the challenge of accounting for the entire complexity of human behavioral and institutional responses. In this paper, we attempt to address the former challenges through the creation of a county-year database that integrates annualized measures of population change and density with exposures to natural disasters. We account for underlying population trends and then evaluate models that assess the effects of cumulative disaster exposures and current year event exposures on subsequent population growth. We evaluate these effects on both short and medium population responses with the expectation that events can lead to population ‘churning’ in the short term and subsequent stabilizing in out going years. The results of our models suggest some possible directions for addressing the second set of challenges facing policy makers and researchers seeking to understand the complexities of human responses to climate change.